Do players improve year to year in Parity?

Submitted by Alex Bush on Thu, 2017-03-16 13:28

Forums:

I did an analysis of each players production (defined as goals + assists) for each season that the played in Parity. I only included you if you played all three seasons.

Here are 5 people who I feel I could share without hurt feelings:

Justine - http://imgur.com/Vzapy7U (Justine had a 15 point game in season 1 that's off the scale)

Amos - http://imgur.com/Gg2CxH1

Geofford - http://imgur.com/m5QMXrV

Keates - http://imgur.com/V7oNQ8Z

Alex - http://imgur.com/WmHMcqL

 

I think it's a neat way to visualize the data. What does it mean? 

- Justine realized she dominated and adjusted her game accordingly to a consistent and fair level; 

- Amos is in a slow and steady decline;

- Geofford is fairly consistent, but dropped off a little this year;

- Keates is improving; and

- Nobody cares about Bush.

Joking aside, I think it really shows the variability game to game. Each dot represents a point total that was scored for one game in each of the parity season. Each player above had a low of 2 and a max of around 10 (with Justine getting a 15). I think the only person who showed consistency was Keates in season 1 when he was consistently bad.

Let me know if you want to see yours. These are the people who qualified:

 

Christopher Keates
Stephen Close
Steve Chow
Sina Dee
Amos Lee
Kirsten Querbach
Alex Bush
Jamie Wildgen
Andrea Proulx
Stan Kent
Justine Price
Jim Robinson
Geofford Seaborn
Alessandro Colantonio
Jeremy Bryan
David Townsend
Dan Thomson
Jonathan Champagne
Laura Chambers Storey
Hope Celani
Rob Tyson
Chris Tran
Wynne Gee
Jeff Hunt
Mark Donahue
Laura Knowles
Rob Ives
Will Leckie

Amos Lee

Thu, 2017-03-16 13:38

Visually my first two years trend downward because my points make shapes that suggest that's the case. Wherein this year, I'm totally up and up because triangles making triangles that point up (and more Zelda triforce).

That's how I'm supposed to read that, right?

Re: Those who say I don't try hard enough... it's really just that I'm worse. Alex Bush said so!

Alex Bush

Thu, 2017-03-16 14:47

This is really just a ploy to get people to email me in Minnesota.

Justine Price

Thu, 2017-03-16 14:51

I injured my shoulder badly in the first game of season two, and made it worse in the second game. I took a few weeks off, and then played with no ability to throw a backhand (ok, I had a sketchy, floaty 5 yard bail -yeesh) in a league that forces backhand predominantly, no hammer (no pew-pew to be seen, tumbleweeds......) and limited forehand (even more erratic than usual). I tried to focus on defense, was pretty grumpy most of the time, played on four teams with mostly late games. It was a sh*% season except for the good humour of the Parity community that was an important part of rehab for me. A belated thanks to all!

I do think the skill level of players in the league has risen each year*. I play the same position as season one, but see less disc* and have fewer downfield options for assists due to better defense* which cannot be proved with any stat. I assume the better defense and skill level may contribute to Amos' supposed "decline"*.

*Based on sentimental statistics, not real ones.

My list of excuses for season three is in the works obviously. 

Justine Price

Thu, 2017-03-16 14:51

Perhaps the question "do players improve year to year" is inherently flawed based on the unmeasurable parts of the game/league, i.e. defense/calibre/strategies used/absences of players in a given games (playing with six men instead of eight consistently and which of those players is repeatedly absent).....etc etc. Less is more, in this league.

I like the idea of moving to  salary per point played rather than per game, but I don't math much.

Alex Bush

Thu, 2017-03-16 20:21

You could also make an argument that since the league is improving, staying consistent year-to-year means that you are improving.

 I hope I didn't offend you, Justine, by showing those stats, Keates in a private email pointed out that his health improved from year 1 to 2 and you started year 2 with an injury.

 

To me, what is most interesting (and by corollary maybe most pointless) is that statistics in frisbee (especially those we measure) are largely meaningless In 2014, in 5% of my games I scored 7 points. That number was 11% in 2015 and 33% in 2016. Yet my average point production for each year was 7 points per game. Can you predict that I'll score 7 points tomorrow? Who knows, I could have 2 points (1/35 games) or 12 points (2/35) games. 

I hope that no one takes themselves too seriously in this league. Stats are fun, but so is frisbee.

Justine Price

Thu, 2017-03-16 21:58

I have zero problem with sharing any stats or break downs. Gimmicks are fun in all their forms. Your efforts are fully appreciated. Happy to provide fodder for Fun With Stats.

Amos Lee

Fri, 2017-03-17 08:55

Justine could suffer a much worse fate than an ugly graph that suggests she was injured at some point.

Look at what happened to Klimowicz this week....

Jason Fraser

Fri, 2017-03-17 13:09

Alex, doesn't your graph show that 51% of the time you scored 7 or more goals? (10/20 in year 1, 10/19 in year 2, and 3/6 this season)

Alessandro Cola...

Thu, 2017-03-16 19:11

Anecdotally, the league is getting more competitive. Wouldn't it make sense that everyone* is seeing a decline in glory stats?

*barring those we regrettably acknowledge are improving.

Christopher Keates

Thu, 2017-03-16 20:31

I don't regret it.

Jim Robinson

Fri, 2017-03-17 09:51

I want a stats picture of my mediocrity too!

Kevin Hughes's picture

Kevin Hughes

Fri, 2017-03-17 17:16

How come I didn't qualify!? I've played all 3 years!

Chris Tran

Fri, 2017-03-17 20:05

Neat stuff Bush.  I give you my full consent to box-and-whisker me.

Christopher Keates

Sat, 2017-03-18 14:42

This is a euphamism for something, but I don't know what, yet!

Alex Bush

Mon, 2017-03-20 10:54

Jim - http://imgur.com/OIvj5QI

Kevin - http://imgur.com/AJKkRTa

Chris Tran - http://imgur.com/SnUBfjn

Kevin Hughes's picture

Kevin Hughes

Mon, 2017-03-20 17:27

Thanks!

I ask because when I looked at the data on my own it looks like I get worse but I don't think thats really the case. In the 1st year all I did was catch Hammers from Justine in the endzone and as a result I was pretty expensive.

My point being that it might be the case that as you improve you play a bigger role on your team which comes with a bigger risk of throw aways etc and might mean scoring less depending on your play style.

Patrick McKelvey

Fri, 2017-04-07 14:13

I think it's cool that these chart have alittle bit of insight into each player's psychology/playing style. In some cases each person's cahrt looks kind of the same shape year-to-year. So for example Chris Tran has a long tail because he has a few stand-out games per season, Keates has kind of a bimodal distribution cus he has good days and bad days, and Bush has a pretty wide variance but could fall anywhere along that distribution in a given week.

Rob Ives

Tue, 2017-03-21 15:16

I would be happy to see some visuals of how I have gotten worse with age...

Alex Bush

Wed, 2017-03-22 10:47

http://imgur.com/tVg5e0l

Derek Hodgson

Thu, 2017-03-23 07:52

One pitfall in your analysis is the consitancy of the teams. The better the handler, the more goals you score as a receiver and the better the receiver, the more assists the handler gets. This would make sense if the teams stay together, but the variability between games in the season, let alone seasons is a big factor. I'm no statictian though :)

Geofford Seaborn

Thu, 2017-03-23 11:14

The pitfall in your analysis is overanalyzing the analysis. This sort of thing is not meant to be taken seriously.

Maybe Parity isn't right for you.

Brent Burton

Thu, 2017-03-23 11:20

Are you saying don't take it seriously because you seem to be getting worse? :-)

Your pal,

Frank.

Christopher Keates

Thu, 2017-03-23 11:37

Year to year the average per game is about 37 total points a game. It seems to be a function of time more than anything. Session 1 this year was about 36.25 , session 2 is 37.25. Last season was ~37 (two teams missed a game which fudges my math and I'm lazy). The first season was 39.5 but the league was pretty aggressive with start times so I think the games were ~5 minutes longer in practice.

There are notable teams that have broken this mold (particularly aggressive huck-happy teams score fast, particularly cloggy/junk defenses force lots of throws and slow the game down) but the average still remains about that, regardless of level of play.

So goals aren't going up or down, really. Given a consistent rate of goal scoring per game across multiple season, we can look at how we score (throws per score, turns per score) to assess level of play, and we can look at individual scoring (G/A/2A per game) to see how individuals change over time.

It's interesting. As level of play improves, offensive systems execute better, but so do defensive systems. Defenses "take more away" but more effective throwers can threaten more of the field. No matter what we do, we still seem to score about 37 goals a game.

Jason Fraser

Thu, 2017-03-23 13:01

In the first season, the games at Louis Riel probably skew the data as they were 90 minutes (instead of 80).

Geofford Seaborn

Thu, 2017-03-23 13:48

Also, the field was a huge square.

Sebastien Belanger

Thu, 2017-03-23 14:14

And Mehmet played that year which I'm sure delayed games while he pointed to the areas of the field where people should have cut WHILE stalls were being counted. I'm sure that scewed something ;-)

Alessandro Cola...

Thu, 2017-03-23 14:53

This is the sort of legacy I want to leave. I want to have people so jealous, they're taking shots at me two years later.

Amos Lee

Thu, 2017-03-23 15:19

You already have a legacy thanks to your soccer "skills."

And that time you threw straight into your mark that he caught your point blank throw. Who was that again? Oh right, it was Mehmet.

 

 

Andrea Proulx's picture

Andrea Proulx

Tue, 2017-04-11 23:43

Either way, I'm still awesome!