Parity Finals Preview (2022/23 Winter): Nick vs. Ainsley

For the first time in more than three years, Parity League will enjoy a bona fide final between Nick’s Sunday Hucks and Ainsley’s No Poach on Sundays. Although a joint championship was handed out last winter (an unfortunate necessity due to Covid-related game cancellations), we have to go all the way back to February 3, 2020 for the last complete bracket. In those finals, Kelsey’s Grammer took down For the Injustices of Fat Hadrians Everywhere in an anti-climactic 26-15 rout.

Now, in 2023, we have a tantalizing matchup on the table between two teams that both hit their stride at the right moment. Sunday Hucks lost their first four games before winning the next 7(!) straight. No Poach on Sundays started a hot 4-1, lost three straight heading into playoffs, then rebounded with a sweep of the bracket.

Neither team has dominated the opposition. The largest margin of victory by either team in these playoffs is only four goals. But they’ve done enough to hold off strong opponents and scrap their way into the championship bout.

So, how do these rosters stack up? What are the storylines to watch? And, most importantly, who’s going to come out on top? Read on!

⚪ Sunday Hucks (Team Nick)

Regular season record: 3rd: 4-4 (+5)

Playoff record:

•     Pre-QF: 20-19 vs. The Sunday Scaries (Al)
•     QF: 21-17 vs. Disc Ways from Sunday (Steve)
•     SF: 23-21 vs. The Damned (Kindha)

Game roster: Bryce Ring, Caitlin Hesketh, Jamie Wildgen, Jay Thor Turner, Jeremiah Webster, Jim Robinson, Linh Pham-Vo, Mike Vlasveld, Nick Theriault, Rachel Hurdle, Sina Dee

Absences: Justine Price

Key strength: Possession. Team Nick is averaging only 17.3 turnovers per game in the playoffs vs. a league average of 22.8.

⚫ No Poach on Sundays (Team Ainsley)

Regular season record: 7th: 4-4 (-12)

Playoff record:

•     Pre-QF: 19-18 vs. Eternal Sundays of the Statless Mind (Marcus)
•     QF: 21-18 vs. No Sunday Couch Potatoes (Gela)
•     SF: 21-18 vs. The Sunday Scaries (Al)

Game roster: Ainsley Shannon, Colin Scarffe, Greg Ellis, Isha Mistry, Martin Cloake, Rob Bohnen, Sam Lanesmith, Sarah Brown, Brett Prairie (substitute)

Absences: Gabriel Parent, John Kim, Lydia Wong, Mehmet Karman

Key strength: Defense. Team Ainsley is averaging 11.7 D blocks per game in the playoffs vs. a league average of 9.5.

➖ Matchups to watch

Bryce Ring vs. Greg Ellis. Two of the top players in the league with extensive competitive pedigrees, both Bryce and Greg have been outstanding this season and will likely see plenty of each other in the final. Bryce is a traditional, stay-at-home handler who has 229 completions and 36 assists this year. Greg plays more of a hybrid role, which is reflected in his 29 goals and 30 assists. If either of these lynchpin players has an off game it will spell trouble for their teams.

Rachel Hurdle vs. Ainsley Shannon. Two blazing fast cutters who also play key defensive roles for their teams. Rachel is the top-scoring WN2 player in the league with 32 goals this season, though Ainsley isn’t far behind with 26. Both players are averaging greater than 95% possession so their teams will be counting on them to keep the offense churning.

Jeremiah Webster vs. Colin Scarffe. Though a Parity rookie, Jeremiah has had a break-out season on both sides of the disc. Expect him to take on one of Ainsley’s toughest matchups in the versatile Colin Scarffe, who has 31 goals and 47 assists this year. It’s a tall order for the rookie, but Jeremiah has 15 D blocks already and could well turn the tide in a close game.

Caitlin Hesketh vs. Sarah Brown. With 28 goals this season, Caitlin is another huge scoring threat in Nick’s lineup. Caitlin is especially dangerous when paired with the aforementioned Rachel Hurdle. What’s a defense to do against that one-two punch? In Lydia Wong’s absence, Ainsley will be looking to Sarah Brown for the answer. With 9 D blocks already this year Sarah has proven her defensive mettle, but this will be her biggest test yet.

Jim Robinson vs. Martin Cloake. Ranked #1 and #3, respectively, on Parity’s all-time goal scoring leaderboard, both Jim and Martin have the potential to blow open a game with their savvy cutting. If either team gets desperate, expect to see these veterans making a beeline for the end zone.

Nick Theriault vs. Brett Prairie. When Bryce and Greg aren’t running the show, these handlers will step into that quarterbacking role. As the league’s all-time leader in blocks and callahans—but also in throwaways—Nick’s discipline could make or break his team’s chances. Brett is more consistent, if a bit less flashy, but as a substitute his impact will depend on how quickly he gels with his new teammates.

➖ Storylines

Parity’s all-time top goal scorer, Jim Robinson, is poised to become the first player in Parity league history to win four championships. He currently has three, a record he shares with Brian Perry and Alisha Zhao.
Martin Cloake and Nick Theriault have each won two previous championships. One of them will secure (metaphorical) ring number three.

Eight Parity rookies are vying to a have their names etched (metaphorically) into the trophy in their inaugural season: Bryce Ring, Gabriel Parent, Jeremiah Webster, John Kim, Lydia Wong, Mike Vlasveld, Rob Bohnen and Sam Lanesmith.

Bryce Ring will be missing his partner in crime, Justine Price. The two have made 67 passes to each other this season, second only to the combination of Kristie Ellis and Tom Newman (Team Tom) who have linked up an astounding 89 times. Likewise, Greg Ellis will be missing one of his key targets in John Kim. That pair has combined for 53 passes this season.

Team Ainsley combined for a league-worst 10 drops in their quarterfinal game. Will those butter fingers come back to haunt them?

Speaking of drops, Linh Pham-Vo and Jay Thor Turner are the only players on either team *not* to have thrown a dropped pass this season.

Sam Lanesmith is coming off a season-best $120k performance in the semi-finals and is a dark horse finals MVP candidate for Team Ainsley.

➖ Predictions

If you’ve been following along with my simulated game predictions in the #parity-league Slack channel, you know it’s been a dismal season for the algorithm. At a 43% success rate, the predictions have been worse than a coin flip!

There are a few explanations. Overall league balance has been good this year, which meant many games were essentially tossups. Six different team had .500 records in the regular season, and no team truly dominated. Even through 11 games, the team with the greatest score differential this year is only at +22, compared to +46 in the most recent 12-game season.

Attendance has been an issue. The simulator assumes everyone on the roster plays, but on average we have only had 19 out of 24 rostered players actually participating in each game this year. Even a single substitute can really swing the math.

Finally, the algorithm itself might need another look. Generally speaking, I’m finding that it underestimates inequality. In other words, it assumes the top players will have less of an impact than they typically do in games. Tweaking that will be an off-season project.

But what about the championship game, you ask? Thanks to a little intel from the GMs, I was able to simulate the final using the rosters that will actually be playing.

Based on 500 simulated games between these rosters, No Poach on Sundays (Team Ainsley) is the slight favourite over Sunday Hucks (Team Nick) with a predicted score of 22 (±5) to 21 (±5). It’s razor thin though. The algorithm only gives Ainsley a 54% chance to win, which puts her at -120 in betting terms.

However, Jamie Wildgen’s participation is uncertain. If he doesn’t make the game, the simulator gives Nick the edge with a 53% chance to win. It just goes to show how sensitive the predicted outcome is to even one change in the rosters.

➖ Really, we’re all winners here

At the end of the day, it looks like fans will be treated to an exciting and hard-fought battle between two quality teams. The finals are scheduled as the sole game in the 5:20pm time slot, which means every other player in the league is available to stay late or come early to cheer the finalists on.

Thanks for a great season and see you all there!

p.s. Not in Parity league but think this sounds awesome? Registration for the spring session is open and we still have a few spots available! https://www.ocua.ca/Spring2023_Parity