2024 Parity Playoff Preview: Welcome to the Colantonishow

After thirteen topsy-turvy weeks of regular season and placement games, it’s finally here: the 2024 Parity Playoff Bracket!

Let’s have a look at how we got here and who the favourites are heading into our final three weeks of games.

◆ The story so far

For all the typical randomness of Parity League, our standings held relatively static this season. Team Tom came flying out of the gate with seven straight wins and held onto the top spot for almost the whole season. Team Al and Team Jamie did catch up in the end, making it a three-way tie for the regular season title (with Al holding the tie-breaker). Notably, Jamie rebounded from a slow start to win seven straight games to close out the season.

Emma, Deanna, Jeremiah and Robbie had their ups and downs but didn’t stray far from the middle of the pack. All four teams were pretty close to breaking even on plus-minus.

At the other end of the standings, Teams Nick, Kyle and Yannick combined for only nine wins and a point differential of -143. In part, all three teams struggled with attendance issues. Kyle was hardest-hit. He averaged only 8.5 rostered players per game and was consequently required to recruit an average of 1.7 subs per game—both league worsts.

[Apparently I can't embed images but check out the chart here.]

The power rankings, which are derived from thousands of simulated games between all of the teams (read more about how that works here), tell a more nuanced story. Since Parity League is designed to create parity between teams, we should expect that team balance gets shaken up following every two-week trade cycle even if the standings don’t reflect it. That did appear to be the case this season.

Although Team Tom was indeed strongest out of the gate he slumped significantly following the mid-season re-draft, which presaged his eventually usurpment atop the standings. Jamie did the opposite: a strong re-draft turned her fortunes around and she had the strongest roster for much of the second half, which was reflected on the score sheet.

In general, the power rankings did a pretty good job of mirroring and even forecasting the rise and fall of various teams in the league standings. The most noteworthy exceptions are Teams Kyle and Nick, which simulated well at times with their full rosters but often had key players fail to show up to actual games.

[Another chart here.]

Anyway, what does this all mean for playoffs? Essentially, throw out historical performance. What actually matters is the quality of teams at the present moment, which is better reflected in the power rankings than in the league standings. By this measure, the current teams to beat are Al, Deanna, Emma and Jamie, as we’ll see in the predictions below.

As a fun aside, Teams Al, Deanna and Jamie also happen to be three oldest teams on average. Make of that what you will.

◆ What about pre-quarterfinals?

Suffice it to say I probably should’ve written this preview last week. But, since I didn’t, we’re going to gloss over the first week of actual playoffs.

Pre-quarterfinals are mainly about seeding anyway, but they do serve to eliminate two teams in our ten-team league from a shot at the eight-team championship bracket. This time around the odd ones out were Nick and Robbie. We won’t be talking about them much below, but feel free to pour out a Nalgene in their honour.

◆ Quarterfinals preview

QF1: At(h)omic Bombs (Tom) [#2] vs. Yannick! At the DISCo (Yannick) [#7]

At almost any point during the regular season this game would have been a shoo-in for Tom’s Bombs, but the #2 seed has struggled lately and Team Yan is peaking at the right moment. After both missing the previous two weeks, Hannah Sholtz and Rick Griffin combined for 53 touches and 11 goals in their pre-quarter upset over Team Robbie. Yan also has Mat Landry in his pocket, who has quietly climbed to fourth in total league scoring with 34 goals and 55 assists this year.

Tom’s once insurmountable core of all-stars has been whittled down to Colin Scarffe, Gen Labelle and Dave Townsend. Gone are the likes of Sasha Palmert, Erik L’Abbe and Kevin Rabichow. Yet Team Tom still has the depth to remain competitive. Liam Paquette has been strong defensively this season while Parity newcomer Justin Turcotte has racked up 173 catches with his energetic cutting.

The verdict? My simulator calls this one a toss-up, but I’m going to side with momentum. As long as Hannah and Rick show up, I think Team Yannick takes it in a nailbiter.

QF2: AdVANCEd Frisbee 101 (Jamie) [#3] vs. Jer Down for Frisbee (Jeremiah) [#6]

The devastating one-two punch of Greg Ellis and Tom Newman has been nearly unstoppable since the re-draft, but Team Jamie has thrived all season on the strength of its women. You’re telling me 36-goal-scoring Cassie Berquist is your third-string cutter? Throw in the wacky waving inflatable defensive duo of Noah Coch-Shannon and Jake Swart and Team Jamie is definitively a top contender.

Team Jeremiah may be the underdog here, but there are enough weapons on this versatile and savvy roster to orchestrate an upset. With a backfield featuring Lydia Wong, Sina Dee, Matt Muzzatti, Greg Linton, Kevin Rabichow and GM Jeremiah himself, there are a wealth of options to pick up the disc and keep the play moving. And you can never count out a team with Martin Cloake, who is one of only four players in Parity history to win three Parity championships.

The sims say Team Jamie has a 59% chance to take this one and I’m inclined to agree, but don’t count Jer out.

QF3: DISCpicable Dee's (Deanna) [#5] vs. Power Plant (Emma) [#4]

With 52 assists this season, the ageless Justine Price continues to strike fear into the hearts of defenses everywhere. At the receiving end, GM Deanna and yours truly have combined for 105 goals. But the real story for Team Deanna this season has been its defense. The Double Ds have given up a league-best 18.9 goals per game thanks to an athletic and coordinated defensive line. The combo of Gabe Senecal, Jason Traynor, Ben Hopper and Matt Kim has put up a combined 69 blocks.

You can’t talk about defense in Parity league without bringing up Patrick Mapp. True to form, Pat has 40 blocks alone this season—a league-best by far. For her part, GM Emma might just lead the league in the unrecorded category of layout Ds. And Team Emma also has league scoring leader Stephen Close to count on in the end zone. Power Plant has lost three games in a row, but they were close games that all happened to be against the top three seeds.

Both teams are in excellent form, sitting at #2 and #3 in the power rankings, respectively. In this battle of defensive giants the simulator gives the edge to Team Deanna with a 58% chance to win. I can’t bring myself to argue with that, but it should be a close and exciting game either way.

QF4: Artificial Lntelligence v2 (Al) [#1] vs. Team Kyle (Kyle) [#8]

What’s most striking (and perhaps most telling) about Team Al and their +62 scoring line is that no player on the team has a normalized salary above $70k. The team’s depth is simply unparalleled. When Jim Robinson is only your 7th best player (by salary), opposing defences are in for a world of hurt—as Jim’s 46 goals can attest. Special mention to breakout star Kendall Carmichael, who’s dropped 50 dimes in her rookie campaign (of which a disturbingly large share have been cross-field hammer lasers).

Team Kyle couldn’t be more different. Their average age is only 30, which is three years younger then the next youngest team and a full eight years younger than Team Al. It’s also a very top-heavy team, with GM Kyle and his 72 assists playing a singularly large role in his team’s success. He’s not alone, of course. Parity newcomer Katie Sciborski has been a handling mainstay with 207 completions this season. Eddy Abouassaf was a late addition to the league but is on a tear with 25 points in five games. The team also acquired gamechanger Sasha Palmert mid-season, though attendance has been an issue. If Sasha plays, Team Kyle has a fighting chance. If not, it’s going to be ugly.

There’s been no more cohesive unit in Parity this year than Artificial Lntelligence (v1 and v2!), and they’re peaking at just the right time. The simulator gives Team Al a 78% chance to win and I think you’d be crazy to bet against the Colantonio brothers in this one.

◆ Championship speculation

Of the four quarterfinal matchups, I only feel confident predicting one of them. But let’s say all my picks advance. What happens next?

SF1: Artificial Lntelligence v2 (Al) [#1] vs. DISCpicable Dee's (Deanna) [#5]

A matchup between the league’s best offense and the league’s best defense is an exciting prospect! Unfortunately, the simulator predicts a steamroll. Although Al’s well-balanced attack is limited to 23 goals in the sims (compared to their 25-goal average), Team Deanna can’t muster up enough offense to pull off the upset.

The smart money is on Team Al with a 72% chance of moving on.

SF2: AdVANCEd Frisbee 101 (Jamie) [#3] vs. Yannick! At the DISCo (Yannick) [#7]

At this point in the playoffs Team Yannick will be everyone’s dark horse pick. Will they have the gumption to knock off another favourite?

The simulator gives Team Jamie a 56% chance of holding seed here. That’s probably the safe bet at this point, but it’s no foregone conclusion. Confidence is a serious factor in sports and if Yannick makes it this far after the season they’ve had then it’s anyone’s game.

Final: Artificial Lntelligence v2 (Al) [#1] vs. AdVANCEd Frisbee 101 (Jamie) [#3]

When these teams met in their pre-quarterfinal seeding match Team Al put up 29 goals en route to a 10-point victory. That’s the kind of offensive domination that should strike fear into the rest of the league.

If they meet again in the finals I expect Team Jamie’s vets to be more focused this time around, but they won’t find it any easier to hold back the onslaught. In the sims, Team Al has eight players putting up multi-goal performances and seven players putting up multi-assist performances in the final. Team Jamie, in contrast, leans heavily on the Greg/Tom duo with support from Kirsten Querbach up front and Andrew Anderson in the backfield.

The simulator gives Team Al a 72% chance to hold seed and win the final. Once again, it’s the depth that makes this roster so strong. Even if one player has an off game, there are plenty of other tools in the toolbox. Team Jamie, on the other hand, really needs all of their stars to put on star performances to have a shot in this one.

◆ Conclusion: Let Parity reign!

So there you have it: #1 seed Team Al is the favourite to go all the way and take home the trophy. Fortunately, there’s still a lot of frisbee left to play! Everyone loves a good upset, so get out there and prove me wrong, folks!