Parity Finals Preview (2023/24 Winter): Al vs. Jamie

Our peerless Parity prognostication program has proven particularly potent in the present playoffs!

As anyone following along in the Slack channel can tell you, the simulator has correctly called the winner in 9 of 11 games over the past three weeks (the other 4 games were "too close to call"), which is even better than the 69% performance it put up during the regular season. These are all-time best numbers for the algorithm, but will they hold up on the biggest stage?

On deck is a showdown of the titans: Al’s Artificial Lntelligence v2 versus Jamie’s AdVANCEd Frisbee 101. The simulator had them favoured to meet in the finals and these heavyweights didn’t disappoint. Brace yourselves for an epic conclusion to a season of monstrous proportions!

Although they were the favourites heading into the bracket, both of our finalists had to fight tooth-and-nail to make it through. In the quarterfinals, Team Al edged out Team Kyle by 25 to 22 while Team Jamie snuck past Team Jer by 21 to 20. In the semis, Jamie held on for a 20 to 18 win over Team Tom while Al bested Team Deanna on universe, 19 to 18, thanks to Max Tomashevsky’s defensive heroics.

⭐ Roster changes

Based on my latest intel, Jamie is playing with nearly a full roster. Only Bridget Enright is missing, although several players, including lynchpins Andrew Anderson, Greg Ellis and Kirsten Querbach are all returning from travel. Any of them could miss the game or be playing at less than 100%.

Al will be likely be missing Caralynn Laszlo, Kendall Carmichael and Yang Xu. Celine Dumais is questionable due to injury. Tentatively subbing are Linh Pham-Vo and—wait for it—Jessie Robinson. That’s right, everyone’s favourite howitzer is making a surprise return to Parity League! Kendall has been key to Al’s success this season, so Jessie has some big shoes to fill.

So here’s what I’m expecting. For Team Jamie: Andrew Anderson, Brian Willcott, Cassie Berquist, Cory Van Hoof, Greg Ellis, Jake Swart, Jamie Vance, Kirsten Querbach, Mark Libby, Noah Coch-Shannon and Tom Newman. For Team Al: Alessandro Colantonio, Celine Dumais, Jared Cohen, Jessie Robinson(S), Jim Robinson, Linh Pham-Vo(S), Max Tomashevsky, Mehmet Karman, Melanie Pabstel, Michael Colantonio and Micheal Davidson.

The simulator results discussed below are based on these likely rosters for tomorrow, not the official rosters for each team.

⭐ Key matchups (Team Jamie vs. Team Al)

Greg Ellis vs. Micheal Davidson. Greg is a legitimate world-class star and has been, by many measures, the best player in Parity this season. He’s won 10 of the 12 games he’s appeared in and racked up 46 goals and 57 assists along the way. If anyone can stop him, it’s going to be defensive menace Mikey Davidson. He’s an offensive weapon, too, but the former Defensive Player of the Year is best known for his tenacious, shut-down D. This one will be fiercely fought.

Kirsten Querbach vs. Jessie Robinson(S). They may be long-time friends and teammates, but these two veterans are also ruthless competitors. With a championship on the line, look forward to fireworks! KQ has notched 46 goals this season with her strong cutting. Although she hasn’t played in the league this season, Jessie has thrown 302 assists over her illustrious Parity career. Both players will be at the heart of their teams’ attacks.

Tom Newman vs. Max Tomashevsky. A pair of Renaissance men known equally for their skill and charm, both Max and Tom can be counted on to fill any role for their teams in key moments. Newman has the edge statistically this season, with a combined 93 scores and 19 blocks to Max’s 68 and 11, respectively. However, Max has been a stunningly effective team player this season, converting a league-best 74% of his offensive points played. As we’ll see below, Team Al’s team play is key to their success, and Max is a pivotal cog in that machine.

Jamie Vance vs. Celine Dumais (or Melanie Pabstel). GM Jamie has led from the front with 48 goals this season, while Celine has put up an impressive 47 goals of her own. These two will likely get plenty of face-time in the final as they do their best to keep the other out of the end zone. If Celine is not able to play due to injury, expect Mel—fresh off her game-winning goal in the semis—to step up.

Andrew Anderson vs. Al Colantonio. With 41 and 42 assists this season, respectively, for Andrew and Al, you can expect much of the final to flow through these high-volume handlers’ hands. Where they differ is in their level of “ambition.” With a 95% possession rate on 328 pass attempts, Andrew is one of the most reliable handlers in the league. GM Al, with 36 throwaways, is not. But Al also tends to put his receivers in more advantageous positions, which is reflected in his 47 second assists to Andrew’s 26.

Jake Swart & Noah Coch-Shannon vs. Jim Robinson. In his 171-game Parity career, the 6’4” Jim has pulled down a league-record 536 goals, including 55 this season. With Greg and Tom tied up elsewhere, defensive duties will likely fall to 6’3” Jake and 6’2” Noah. The pair have combined for 34 blocks this year and they’ll probably need a few more to turn the tides in this one.

⭐ Fun stats and storylines

Despite playing in more games (178) than any other player in Parity history—and leading a whole bunch of statistical categories along the way—Al Colantonio has never won a Parity championship. Will he finally get that coveted (metaphorical) ring?

Jim Robinson, on the other hand, has won three previous championships, a record he currently shares with three other players. Winning this final would make him the single most decorated player in league history.

Last year’s champions, Team Ainsley, had both Mehmet Karman and Greg Ellis on the roster. Only one of these players will repeat as champs.

Team Jamie’s Cory Van Hoof, Jake Swart and Mark Libby (as well as Team Al’s Bridget Enright and Kendall Carmichael, in absentia), are hoping to strike championship gold in their rookie seasons.

Greg and Tom Newman have combined for 110 passes and 18 scores this season, which puts them among the most productive duos in the league. But with eight open players on the roster for the final, they might never see the field together.

Team Al’s top duo has been Kendall and GM Al, who have combined for 82 passes and 16 scores this season. Al will need to adjust in Kendall’s absence.

Speaking of chemistry, GM Jamie made fewer player transactions (17) than any other GM during the regular season.

At an average age of 40, Team Jamie is the oldest roster in the league. Team Al is not far behind at an average age of 38.

Michael Colantonio, who is averaging 3 goals, 2 assists and $97,000 per game, is quietly having a career year. Other career bests include Cassie Berquist scoring 2.5 goals per game, Andrew Anderson throwing 3.4 assists per game and Noah Coch-Shannon putting up a combined 3.3 scores per game.

And last but certainly not least, in terms of how evenly the disc has been shared and salary accrued among all players and all genders on each roster, Team Al has been the most equitable team in the league this season. If they win the final after coming out on top during the regular season, it will be because they made the most of every player on the field.

⭐ Predictions

I pitted these rosters against each another in 500 gruelling virtual matches. After the dust settled, Team Al came out on top 58% of the time with a median score of 22 (±5) to 21 (±5). That’s a large enough margin for me to call Al the favourite in this one, though it’s no foregone conclusion.

Based on the simulations, Greg and Tom are expected to dominate the score board with 6 scores apiece while KQ pitches in 4 goals. But that star power is outweighed by Al’s depth. Seven different players on Team Al’s roster are predicted to contribute 4 or more scores, compared to only four such players on Team Jamie (the three aforementioned stars plus Andrew). The contributions from the middle of Al’s roster—players like Jared Cohen and Michael Colantonio—make the ultimate difference.

One interesting statistical nugget is that Team Al is expected to throw more turnovers than Team Jamie (17 vs. 16, on average), but that is more than made up for by fewer drops (4 vs. 6). Could Team Jamie’s butterfingers decide the championship?

The best way to find out is to watch it for yourself! The final takes place at 8:30pm on field #1. If you play at 7:00pm you can take in the whole final, and if you play at 8:20pm you can hurry over to catch the thrilling finale. Hope to see you there!