Parity Finals Preview (2024/25 Winter): Battle in the Bibliotheca

“He saw before him two cuts, both equally straight; but he did see two; and that terrified him — he who had never in his life known anything but one deep option. And, bitter anguish, these two cuts were clogged.” ~ Victor Huge-Throw

Buckle up bibliophiles, because the last chapter in the Parity League playoff portfolio promises to be an instant classic. This season’s novel showdown between Les Discerables and Fantastic Breaks and Where to Find Them is authored by the literary luchadors Deanna and Sarah, whose casts of capable characters were drafted, revised and inked for premium postseason publication. Their critics silenced, these brainy bestsellers will now subject their masterworks to the ultimate test: a Championship Final. A loss would speak volumes. A victory would punctuate a Parity performance for the history books.

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After enjoying one of the most balanced regular seasons in Parity history—no team won more than five games or lost more than six—we have been treated to one of the most competitive playoff brackets in recent years. Coming into playoffs as the #4 seed, Deanna’s Les Discs squeaked by Team Chantal with a two-point victory before earning a more comfortable, 4-point win over Team Vance in semis. Sarah’s #2-seeded Fantastic Breaks topped Team Robbie by three and then Team Al by just two points to clinch their finals berth.

While close games are good for parity, they’ve been terrible for the predictions algorithm. Folks following along in the #parity-league Slack channel will know that the simulator has been only 51% accurate through the first eleven weeks—no better than a coin flip! We’ll discuss the algorithm’s predictions for the final below, but with the way this season has gone, every game is truly up for grabs. That makes this final all the more exciting!

Rosters

Team Deanna is expecting to miss Ben H, Bo, Daniel and Ryan in the final—half their ON2 players! Ben Y and Keiran M will be subbing. The full expected roster is: Ben Y(S), Caitlin, Cassie, Deanna, Keiran(S), Kyle C, Liam, Roberto, Rosalie and Yannick.

Team Sarah is tentatively expecting a full complement for the final, which means: Emma, Jérémie, Justin, Krista, Martin, Michel, Morgan, Patrick, Rachel, Sarah, Tom and Tim. However, Justin and Morgan will both be game-time decisions.

The following discussion and predictions are based on the rosters that are expected to play on Sunday, not the official team rosters.

Key matchups (Team Deanna vs. Team Sarah)

Kyle vs. Pat. Arguably the two best players in the league this season—and former teammates in the open program—KC and Mapp will come face-to-face in the final. Kyle leads the league in a half dozen statistical categories, while Pat has the edge on a per-game basis. Both have been central to their teams’ success on offense and defense, filling every role on the field. Expect this matchup to produce at least one spectacular, contested layout on Sunday.

Caitlin vs. Emma. If you’re here for the layouts, however, look no further than Air Emma. A striking proportion of her 28 goals and 10 blocks this season (in only 6 games played!) have come while horizontal. But she’ll have her hands full with the speedy Caitlin, who has scored 37 goals of her own.

Yannick vs. Tom. Although best known for his backhand cannon, Yan has emerged as a dangerous downfield option for his team this season. With 35 goals and 54 assists this season, he trails only his teammate Kyle in combined scores. Tom, however, may be the X-factor for Les Fantastiques. He leads the league with 9 individual wins this season, having turned around the fortunes of each of the three teams he’s played with.

Cassie vs. Rachel. These two savvy and versatile vets will be key cogs in their respective offenses. With 25 goals and 23 assists already this season, Cassie is ready to take advantage of whatever the defense gives her. Rachel will be looking to pad her 229 career goals with well-timed strikes.

Ben(S) vs. Martin. While he has settled into a more conservative, hybrid role in recent years, Martin remains one of the highest scoring players in Parity history. At 6’7”, defenses simply cannot ignore his size and, normally, 6’4” Ben (Hopper) would be on primary shutdown duties. With Ben #1 sidelined with injury, Deanna has called upon the other 6’4” Ben (York) to fill in. Casual fans may not even notice the switcheroo.

Roberto vs. Jérémie. When he broke into the league last year, Roberto immediately turned heads with a 42 goal season. Now in his second campaign, the speedster is showing a more complete game, doubling his touches from last season and getting much more involved in the midfield. For his part, Parity rookie Jérémie has carved out a key role as Pat’s primary reset option. The pair have connected for 65 passes, mainly in the midfield, where Jérémie’s quickness is on full display. The task before these two grinders is to force the other one out of their comfort zone.

Storylines

None of the players from last year’s winning team are in this final, so there will be no repeat champions. However, Martin has won three previous Parity championships. A win on Sunday would put him in the rarified company of Jim Robinson as the only other four-time champ.

As Parity rookies, Jérémie, Justin, Krista, Kyle and Daniel (in absentia) are hoping to go one-for-one in their Parity Finals careers.

Kyle and Yannick have been, by far, the most productive duo in the league this season, having combined for 117 passes and 21 scores. Pat and Martin have been the most productive duo for their team, connecting for 66 passes and 16 scores so far.

Morgan is having a career year, with goals, blocks and touches well above his historical averages. Likewise for Rosalie, who has significantly increased her passing and blocking numbers from last winter while cutting turnovers in half.

With average ages of 33 and 34, respectively, Deanna and Sarah have the second and third youngest rosters in the league (first place goes to Team Kyle, with a practically cherubic average age of 31).

Deanna made only three player transactions during the season, by far the fewest among GMs (Sarah was middle of the pack with nine). Will that long-standing chemistry be the difference maker on Sunday? Or will the addition of multiple subs throw Team Deanna into disarray?

Finally, our two finalists have been the two least inclusive teams in the league this season. They have had the greatest concentration of touches at the top end of their rosters and the largest average salary gap between ON2 and WN2 players. Will we see a whole team effort from either side in the final? Or will it be bro ball all the way to the cup?

Predictions

I subjected the expected rosters for tomorrow’s final through 500 simulated games using my predictions algorithm. The margins were razor thin, but ultimately the simulator gave the edge to Les Discerables (Team Deanna) with a 54% chance to win over Fantastic Breaks and Where to Find Them (Team Sarah). The predicted score is 24 (±4) to 23 (±5).

Les Discs benefit from the short bench. Having Kyle and Yannick play 30 points per game is a big advantage, and the pair are expected to score 3 goals and 5 assists apiece with as many as 80 touches between them. Pat is the biggest impact player in the sims on a per-point basis, but he simply won’t be on the field as often.

Consistent with the way these teams have played this season, the top WN2 player in the sims, Caitlin, is only expected to touch the disc a third as much as any of the top ON2 players. My challenge to these teams is to change that narrative, and prove that they can go all the way and win as a complete team.

Ultimately, I think this game is too close to call. The slight edge that Deanna has on paper doesn’t reflect the challenge of having multiple subs in the mix. But there’s only one way to find out! The big show begins at 9:00pm on field #3, so I encourage you to stick around to watch, cheer and heckle the finalists and ring in the first Parity champs of 2025! See you there!