Fun with Stats (Turnover Edition) - Warning, may contain too much truth ;-)

With our stat expert (Alex Bush) MIA and our unofficial Parity historian (Keates) on his way back from not-so-sunny California, I've taken it upon myself to attempt a poor man's version of fun with stats with an emphasis on turnovers. After many posts where I’ve taken shots at Al for his ability to forget about his throwaways, I decided to use some stats to determine exactly who are the best and worst at valuing the disc.

Before I dive into the numbers, turnovers due to throwaways or throw-drops are not equal between players. A player that is generating turnovers with conservative throws, like me, should have a much lower turnover rate than someone like Al who has a repertoire of defense crushing creative throws. Another big factor is the talent of your receivers and how open they can get. Not all teams have receivers that can generate the same separation as others which can also have a big impact on the numbers.

 That being said, for the purposes of this post, I calculated turnover rate as: (Throwaways + ThrewDrops) / (Throwaways + ThrewDrops + Completions). I calculated this stat as a percentage and applied it to players with a minimum 10 throws and another list of players with 20 throws.

Results:

Players with 20 or more throws in a game with no turnovers:

• Brian Kells (Week 1)                  22 completions
• Sam Lee (Week 3)                     22 completions
• Mike Lee (Week 4)                     27 completions
• Rob Tyson (Week 4)                  29 completions
• Chris Keates (Week 6)               21 completions
• Megan Robb (Week 8)               20 completions
• Chris Sullivan (Week 8)              29 completions
• Kirsten Querbach (Week 9)         21 completions
• Heather McCabe (Week 10)        26 completions

If you made this list you deserve major props. The fact that, in 10 weeks of play, only 10 people have pulled this off speaks to the high quality of your play, not only on getting open but also executing throws consistently. I’m not sure anyone would have guessed any of the names on this list with the possible exception of Sully and the 2 Lees.

Top 10 players (Weeks 1-10) averaging 10 or more throws (adjusted for games played):

• Chris Sullivan                5.10%
• Kirsten Querbach          5.98%
• Mike Lee                       6.20%
• Heather McCabe           6.54%
• Kevin Hughes                7.14%
• Steve Chow                   7.37%
• Dan Thomson               7.45%
• Rob Tyson                     7.69%
• Andrew Spearin             8.81%
• Rob Ives                        9.09%

Top 10 players (Weeks 1-10) averaging 20 or more throws (adjusted for games played):

• Chris Sullivan                5.10%
• Mike Lee                       6.20%
• Heather McCabe          6.54%
• Kevin Hughes                7.14%
• Steve Chow                  7.37%
• Greg Probe                   9.77%
• Jamie Wildgen              10.29%
• Scott Higgins                10.50%
• Geofford seaborn         10.71%
• Christopher Keates        11.21%

These lists are a bit more straightforward. The usual suspects are all here led by the HOFer Sully.

Now for the bad. Hopefully this won’t surprise anyone (we should all be honest with ourselves post-game) or hurt any feelings.

Players with some of the worst performances in any given week with a minimum of 10 throws:

• Megan Robb (Week 1)               35.71%
• Chris Tran (Week 2)                   36.36%
• Nick Theriault (Week 3)              47.83%
• Ariel Untiveros (Week 4)             60.00%
• Tim Kealey (Week 4)                  36.84%
• Al Colantonio (sub) (Week 4)      36.36%
• Amos Lee (Week 4)                   35.00%
• Mark Donahue (Week 6)             36.36%
• Sam Lee (Week 7)                     36.36%
• Jonathan Pindur (Week 10)        53.33%
• Amos Lee (Week 10)                 36.36%

Most of the people on this list had very small sample size (i.e. just about 10 throws total). The funniest entry on the list is Al in week 4 who did his worst work as a sub. I also found it amusing that Pindur almost set a record in a playoff game but his team still managed to pull out a win. I was very close to making this list in week 2 but with a turnover rate of 31.82%, I was able to make it just below the arbitrary threshold for making the list of 35%.

Finally, the average turnover rate for players that average 10 throws per game for the weeks 1 – 10 is 13.96% which is only slightly higher than for players that average 20 throws per game for the same period of 12.89%. Most of the players on this list are pushing the limits of their abilities and trying risky throws due, in large part, because no one is open (benefit of the doubt).

Bottom 10 players (Weeks 1-10) averaging 10 or more throws (adjusted for games played):

• Tim Kealey                    22.31%
• Al Colantonio                22.29%
• Jessie Robinson            20.74%
• Andre Scott                  20.39%
• Chris Tran                     20.22%
• Alex Bush                     19.67%
• Jonathan Pindur           19.61%
• Krys Kudakiewicz          19.35%
• Sandra Hanson             19.32%
• Sebastien Belanger       19.11%

Bottom 10 players (Weeks 1-10) averaging 20 or more throws (adjusted for games played):

• Al Colantonio    22.29%
• Jessie Robinson  20.74%
• Alex Bush         19.67%
• Frederic Caron  18.37%
• Jaime Boss       17.54%
• Patrick Kenzie   17.22%
• Amos Lee         15.69%
• Richard Gregory 15.38%
• Brian Kells        14.22%
• Brent Burton      14.07%

If you made the 2nd list, but not the first, don’t worry about it. With only 27 people averaging 20 or more throws, it just means you’re below average compared to the league’s top tier players. But if you made both lists, congratulations, you are gunning for the unofficial parity league turnover trophy called the “Al Colantonio Award” and are likely doing more than your share of work in making parity “great” again with spectacularly creative throws.