Full Parity Playoff Predictions (with stats!)

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood's picture
Submitted by Hadrian Mertins... on Wed, 2019-01-16 13:22

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One of the most interesting and contentious Parity seasons in recent memory has entered its final stage: playoffs! Eight teams vie for a championship and, thanks to a strange bracket, the other two teams play for a chance at 5th.

Who will take the crown? In the interest of science, I have modeled individual game results using my previously-discussed Effectiveness Ratings. I take the average offensive ratings of the players on each team and compare them to the average defensive ratings of their opponent to predict the number of goals each team will score in a given game. I assume all 12 players on each team will show up for every game (excluding the known injuries to AnneMarie Gagnon and Kristyn Berquist) and play time will be relatively even.

Since there will inevitably be absences/subs (and Parity tends to be a gong show in general) I’m prepared for these predictions to be totally wrong, but they at least give an indication of who the favourites are heading into the final three weeks. Enjoy!

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Week 10 (Jan. 21): Quarterfinals

[QF] Big Love (19) vs. Moneyball (16)
[QF] An Andréa's Fault (22) vs. Uncorked (20)
[QF] #goals (19) vs. Flaccid Member(ship) (15)
[QF] Hot or Not (24) vs. cRyan till the throws come home (13)
[5th play-in] Badgers (20) vs. ikneebriated (26)

The top seeds take all the quarterfinal matchups. Uncorked gets the closest to an upset but can't hold on against An Andréa's Fault. Hot or Not makes a statement by blowing out cRyan. ikneebriated dominates a high-scoring consolation game.

Week 11 (Jan. 28): Semifinals

[SF] Big Love (19) vs. An Andréa's Fault (20)
[SF] #goals (16) vs. Hot or Not (22)
[5th SF] Uncorked (22) vs. cRyan till the throws come home (18)
[5th SF] Flaccid Member(ship) (19) vs. ikneebriated (20) *universe*
[7th play-in] Moneyball (24) vs. Badgers (17)

An Andréa's Fault upsets Big Love in a tight game to advance to the finals. Hot or Not cruises in the other semi. ikneebriated sneaks past Flaccid Member(ship) on universe point. Moneyball rebounds with a big win.

Week 12 (Feb. 4): Finals

[1st] An Andréa's Fault (18) vs. Hot or Not (22)
[3rd] Big Love (19) vs. #goals (18) *universe*
[5th] Uncorked (23) vs. ikneebriated (20)
[7th] cRyan till the throws come home (17) vs. Moneyball (19)
[9th] Flaccid Member(ship) (22) vs. Badgers (17)

A solid effort from An Andréa's Fault isn't enough to slow the Hot or Not offense, which claims the championship. Big Love takes third place over #goals with some universe point heroics. Uncorked edges out ikneebriated to hold seed. Flaccid Member(ship) avoids the basement.

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Overall, it's hard to bet against Hot or Not as we head into playoffs. Jon Rowe, Brian Perry, Brian O'Callaghan and the resurgent Tom Ferguson are all in the top 10 individual rankings. Darlene Riley, Melissa Jess, Adrienne Junek and Annie Christie are all significantly underrated. With savvy GM Heather Wallace at the helm, it's their championship to lose.

Big Love dominated the regular season and it wouldn't be surprising to see them in the finals, but An Andréa's Fault is a slight favourite on that side of the bracket due to a more balanced roster. #goals and Uncorked have an outside chance at making finals while Moneyball is a dark horse wildcard. Flaccid Member(ship) and cRyan have struggled lately and the stats suggest they won't make a deep run.

But this is Parity, so who knows! What do you think?

Jon Rowe

Wed, 2019-01-16 14:40

In my completely unbiased opinion I think you've got it spot-on, sir.

I agree that the 1-4 seeds are favorites to advance, but I'd not be afraid of a longshot bet on Laura's team - they're sneaky strong, and beat the presumtive tournament favourite 3 weeks ago by a decisive margin. Newman's playing with a swagger inspired by Amos' seething bitter hatred; an intangible that cannot be ignored.

I can't help but feel that the salary balancing methods need some fine tuning... unfortunately it seems very difficult for teams in the basement to climb out through the balancing, they just seem to take on more heavy contracts while Hot or Not has been fortunate/shrewd enough to pluck a few diamonds and clutch them tightly to build a formidable squad.

Justine Price

Wed, 2019-01-16 15:43

My take away from this post happens to be the same as my predictions, if I may quote, "Parity....gong show."

Steve Bisang

Fri, 2019-01-18 09:51

Boo to the 10pm QF game.  This factors into a clutch game like snow at a CFL final. 

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood's picture

Hadrian Mertins...

Fri, 2019-01-18 09:55

We talk a lot about how garbage the late show is in Parity, but has anyone actually done an analysis? It should be pretty easy to see if the later games have more turnovers, fewer goals, etc.

Steve Bisang

Fri, 2019-01-18 12:08

but upon analysis, you'll see that the schedule is crazy.  Some teams have only played 1 10pm slot and others have played 3...  If you count 9:40 in that category you'll see that most teams have played 4 or 5 late games, but one team has only played 2 and onehas only played 3!

3 teams have played 5 7pm games (with one team playing 3 in a row) , and 3 teams have only played 1 8:20 games, while 3 teams have played 3.

Good luck with weighting that.

 

 

Justine Price

Mon, 2019-01-21 09:08

So according to Hadrian's depth chart, four of the top ten men are all on one team. What are the Parity bookies giving for odds that Heather's team wins it all? Are they the NE Patriots that everyone loves to hate or loves to love? Which one is Brady, Gronk, Williams or Edelman? Is Heather the Belichek of the league? 

 

John Haig

Mon, 2019-01-21 12:38

I don't follow football well enough to comment on the others, but the Tom Brady of that group is fairly obvious.

In the dark if I describe a parity player as a "pocket passer" with pretty eyes who likely owns a pair of Uggs, don't try and pretend you wouldn't have guessed Bryan Perry in half a second.

Now with post-game sideline beers, you might have guessed Bryan for the Gronk spot, but the Uggs are a dead giveaway.  Instead if you ignore Gronk's party rep and focus on the constant injuries leading up to big time clutch performance, then you need to give that to TMF.

I'll let someone else take a swing at the last two.

Christopher Keates

Mon, 2019-01-21 14:40

Edelman (ne Edelmann) is a name from the middle ages, and is of Germanic origin. It loosely translates to noble or high man, and was a surname bestowed upon those of just below the actual nobility. 

Rowe has a similar background. It is thought to be of ancient Germanic or Frankish origin, being an evolution of Rolf or a short form of Rowland. In either case, the root and translation of the name seems to be "renown".

In both cases we can see a Germanic origin, and a certain degree of nobility or distinction, so it's clear that Jon Rowe's most likely Patriots analogue is Edelman. Like those before them, bestowed the name of noble man, they are beholden to their rulers. Bill Belichek says to run a skinny post, Edelman nods and says "Yes boss." Heather demands Jon sky his defender, "how high?" is the only reply. Of course, it helps that Jon Rowe is also a mindless frisbee robot with a non-stop motor and a nose for the endzone, exactly like Edelman.

An empty, vacant stare accompanies the answers from both men, as they gaze off into the distance, trying to perceive objective truth as a function of their performance in their chosen sport. Those fleeting moments when they achieve (and score) their touchdowns or goals are moments when they truly know themselves, but are moments that can never be held onto, a lonely truth of their existance that drives them towards the endzone at every moment.

Some might see this drive and their success as a blessing, but the wise among us know the curse for what it is. As they age and their body declines, as those revelatory moments becomes fewer and farther between, as they can no longer fill that void inside themselves with the psychological rewards of their Pavlovian conditioning, they will become sad and bitter creatures driven to a task they are no longer suited.

Edelman may be able to break this cycle. He was a quartback once, and perhaps he could become one again, as his legs fail him. Jon Rowe, however, has no such path to salvation. He will never handle, and when he can no longer cut, he will have nothing.

So yea. Jon Rowe is definitely the cursed version of Julian Edelman.

Tom Newman

Mon, 2019-01-21 18:49

It seems to me like Heather's team looks more like the 2011 Miami Heat. Looks good on paper, but not able to finish. Plus they won't be able to handle a strong European MVP...Bisang is German right??

 

 

Mehmet Karman

Wed, 2019-01-23 11:41

Forecasts are meant (and should be taken) as entertainment, but clearly there's a danger in doing all 3 weeks at once, instead of 1 week at a time.  :)

No truth to the rumour that my teammates were inspired by the perceived insult by a mathematical model - but it was clear our GM was pleased to see a collective return to competence (ignoring the throwaway figures obviously, it didn't feel that messy)!

2 quarterfinals resulting in universe point wins, with those winners now facing each other - surely there will be more drama?

An entertaining data point for a stat that isn't leaderboarded - the highest number of 2nd assists this season was recorded in weeek 10, by Andrea Proulx (with 8).  Everything she touched (soon) turned to gold.

M.

Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood's picture

Hadrian Mertins...

Wed, 2019-01-23 12:59

Stay tuned for a revised predictions post in the next couple of days ;)

Amos Lee

Wed, 2019-01-23 13:26

^^ HMK knows how to build hype and ensure Jon Rowe is refreshing the Parity Forum every 5 minutes.